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Tuesday, July 10, 2012

Romney Has Not Begun To Fight

There is considerable nervousness on our side about Romney's slow progress especially in the battleground states. Pundits of both parties often point to Pennsylvania and remark that Romney is down 8 points and that he has to get his message out, define himself and offer a vision. It's always the same. Get the message out, define himself, and offer a Reaganesque vision of the future. Two points: First, Pennsylvania is not a traditional battleground state. It has voted Democratic in every presidential election since 1992. The fact the Romney is competitive there speaks to the fact that Obama is in deep trouble with the white working class. Second, Romney has yet to spend a dime in Pennsylvania while Obama has spent $5 million on ad buys. Crossroads GPS and bought $2.3 million in ads while Americans for Prosperity has kicked $1.8 million.
Remember the Republican primary ran unusually long this year, causing Romney to spend quite a bit ( $87 million) and his fund raising is just now beginning to hit stride. His super PAC's have kept him competitive in the battleground states and in the last two month he has out raised Obama who has burned through $91 million in the 8 battleground states while Romney has spent just $23 million. In Ohio the ad spending breaks down; Obama $22 million, Romney $6.5 million. For Florida the numbers are; Obama $17 million, Romney $2 million and in battleground Virginia the totals are; Obama $11 million, Romney $3 million.
Romney is also close in two states, Michigan and Wisconsin, which were thought to be safe Obama territory. All of this begs the question; If Obama has to spend $91 million just to slowly lose ground what will happen when he is being outspent by the same ratios he has outspent Romney to date? The Obama super PAC's can't raise cash and soon the Obama campaign will begin to experience the working class joy of living paycheck to paycheck. One can see why the Obama campaign is running scared.

1 comment:

  1. Yeah, I think you are right about this. He hasn't yet begun to fight, to quote John Paul Jones.

    OTOH, I worry that POGO might be right instead.

    We have the met the enemy and he is us.