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Saturday, July 21, 2012

Obama Has Less Cash than Romney

Thrift is not an affair of the pocket, but an affair of character, according to Simon William Straus, president of the American Society for Thrift. Straus and his brave little society are long dead but his advice on the character of a thrifty man might have served Obama well or at least better than Axelrod's. As President, Obama can run up huge deficits but on the campaign trail the Federal Reserve can't print money for him. On July 10 I wrote;
"Remember the Republican primary ran unusually long this year, causing Romney to spend quite a bit ( $87 million) and his fund raising is just now beginning to hit stride. His super PAC's have kept him competitive in the battleground states and in the last two month he has out raised Obama who has burned through $91 million in the 8 battleground states while Romney has spent just $23 million. In Ohio the ad spending breaks down; Obama $22 million, Romney $6.5 million. For Florida the numbers are; Obama $17 million, Romney $2 million and in battleground Virginia the totals are; Obama $11 million, Romney $3 million".
Now the Obama campaign finds itself in second place in the cash on hand department. Romney, who trailed Obama by $90 million at the end of March, now leads the incumbent president $170 million to $144 million in cash on hand, thanks to a surge in GOP fundraising and heavy spending by the Democrats early in the 2012 campaign. In spite of attending 108 fund raisers Obama is holding $26 million less than Romney and it is pretty apt to get worse. Much worse! While Obama's super PAC, Priorities USA Action has struggled the big three Republican super PAC's, Crossroads GPS, the Club for Growth and Restore Our Future have been, well, flat out super. They will probably throw an additional $600 to $700 million into the election effort. By October the crying and moaning about Citizens United will  exceed safe decibel levels.
For some time I've thought that would be Romney donors have been intimidated for fear of reprisals the Chicago gang would inflict upon them in Obama's second term. Maybe some of them have donated to the super PAC's where their donation would kept private but most have sat on the sidelines. If Romney looks like the winner the money will pour in especially from donors whose companies are subject to federal regulation. Obama can expect to be outspent in battleground states by the same margins he has outspent Romney and Romney will have enough money left over to fly sorties into some deep blue states. The Republican super PAC's will have the cash to flip more Senate and House races. For the first time in four years I'm optimistic!

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