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Thursday, July 19, 2012

NYT/CBS Poll Grim Reading for Obama

The headline most people will take from the latest NYT/CBS poll is that for the first time Romney leads Obama but that is the high point as far as Obama is concerned. The internals are positively brutal. Let's look at the precious independents where only 35% of them approve of Obama's job performance 49 disapprove. What about his personal approval? Don't ask. He is under water there 28% to 51%.
Looking at the broader sample of registered voters Obama does best Romney among woman-by 5% but he looses among men by 8 point. Fifty-four percent of registered voters cite the economy and jobs as "extremely" important in their presidential vote, more than any other issue. Here Romney has the edge: 49 percent of registered voters say he would do a better job handling the economy and jobs, while 41 percent cite Mr. Obama. Romney is also seen as better on the federal budget deficit (50 percent to 36 percent), taxes (47 percent to 42 percent) and illegal immigration (46 percent to 38 percent). Mr. Obama as seen as better on foreign policy (47 percent to 40 percent) and social issues (48 percent to 37 percent). Views of the candidates on health care and terrorism were split. Thirty-eight percent of registered voters say Mr. Obama cares a lot about their needs and problems, compared to 25 percent who say the same of Romney.
Worse yet the polling sample is skewed in favor of the Democrats by 6.5%. The sample consisted of 26% Republicans, 33%Democrats, and 41% independents. Remember as Obama has continued to slide he has out spent Romney almost 4 to 1; $91 million to $23 million.

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