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Wednesday, August 19, 2015

Black votes matter

I tried to make the point in a previous post that the results of the Republicans losing the Hispanic vote is nothing compared to the Democrats losing the black vote. By losing the black vote I do not necessarily mean the Republicans must win it, just that black voter turnout decline. Notice that in 2008 and 2012 that the black voter participation rate was higher than that of whites. Also notice that in 2010 and 2014 the black rate was markedly lower than the white rate. Two explanations are plausible. One, blacks do not care about down ballot races as much as whites do or the higher turnout in the presidential elections was due to Barack Obama being on the ballot.
The traditional Democratic Party composed of blacks and northern white ethnics, commonly referred to as the white working class is no more making the party extremely dependant upon the black vote.

From the 2008 to the 2012 presidential elections Democrats maintained their core coalition but in 2012 but their support among both white working-class and middle-class voters began to shrink. After getting 40 percent of the white working-class vote in 2008, Obama got only 36 percent in 2012. And after winning college-but-not-post graduate voters and middle-income voters in 2008, he lost both groups to Mitt Romney, by 51 percent to 47 percent and 52 percent to 46 percent, respectively. Now the Party of Jefferson and Jackson finds itself in a position that it wins or loses at the whim of black voters who it seems hell bent on alienating.

Ask yourself if the speaker in this video is more or less likely to turnout for Hillary in the 2016 election.

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