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Thursday, September 17, 2015

Florida is trending Republican

This Florida poll by PPP did not get much media attention. It was completed and released prior to the CNN debate and 32% of respondents answered "unsure" when asked to express either a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Carly Fiorina. No matter. Evidently Florida voters don't care as long as it's not Hillary. Matched head to head Fiorina beats Clinton by 5%, 46% to 41%. Keep in mind Obama carried the Gator State twice but in this particular poll, conducted by a Democratic leaning pollster, practically any Republican can beat any Democrat. The fact that Hispanic voters made up 14% of the sample did not stop Trump from beating Hillary by 6 points but Hillary does squeak out a 45% to 43% victory over Ted Cruz. Here is an encapsulation of the results.
Clinton 42 Bush 45
Clinton 40 Carson 49
Clinton 45 Cruz 43
Clinton 41 Fiorina 46
Clinton 45 Huckabee 43
Clinton 41 Kasich 44
Clinton 43 Rubio 48
Clinton 42 Trump 48
Clinton 43 Walker 45
Biden 42 Bush 46
Biden 43 Trump 47
Sanders 41 Bush 45
Sanders 33 Carson 48
Sanders 37 Fiorina 44
Sanders 41 Trump 47
Sanders 40 Walker 42
All this seems too good to be true. Let me express the usual caveats. This poll is of registered voters, not likely voters and it may be too early for polls to have much predictive value. That said, I would be positively sick if the numbers were reversed.

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