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Thursday, November 21, 2013

It may be a long train wreck

It should be coming apparent to Democrats that Max Baucus' analogy of a train wreck to describe Obamacare is a rather sanguine if not down right giddily optimistic metaphor for its eventual denouement. Maybe if one thinks in terms of a years long ride down a steep grade sans air brakes with screaming children and cursing adults until old 97 does eventually jump the tracks it is accurate. The point is Obamacare with all its damage is apt to be around long after many of its most ardent proponents have been sent to the home for washed up ideologues. Maybe a China Syndrome like melt down is a better comparison. What is certain is there is no OFF button. As Obamacare is implemented the bodies will pile up and by 2016 there may be very few safe Democratic seats.
The Democratic Party has bet the family farm on Obamacare. It is the culmination of a dream that has sustained it for three quarters of a century. Somewhere along the line Happy Days Are Here Again with Kate Smith at the old upright was replaced with To Dream the Impossible Dream. The trouble is, one man's dream is another man's nightmare. Pragmatism doesn't have a chance until we see Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi on the rooftop waiting for the last helicopter out of Saigon.
What I'm suggesting is that the ongoing drama is apt to be around for years depending on the number of casualties the Democrats are willing to take. There are a few-Lanny Davis is one-Democratic insiders who think that there is an opportunity for a bipartisan solution to the mess, meaning of course, the Democrats would get half a dream, and some McCain like RINO would provide the foundering party with a graceful exit. I don't see hard line Democrats capitulating and I doubt is anything short of unconditional repeal will please the Republican base.
The Republicans have a very good chance of picking up 3 vacated senate seats currently held be Democrats Baucus, Johnson, and Rockefeller. If they can pick up just 3 of the remaining 18 seats the Democrats must defend they will control the Senate. Pryor, Landrieu, Begich, and Hagan are extremely vulnerable and more opportunities will probably become evident soon as Obama drags the ticket down. It could be that if the Republicans win the Senate, they and the chastened Democrats could possibly vote to kill Obamacare but it would take 66 votes to override an Obama veto. So possibly the train wreck stretches into the 2016 election. By this time millions more will have lost their insurance, many will be going uncovered and many will be paying exorbitant premiums for high deductible policies. It will be very hard for the Democratic candidate to promise more of the same. No Republican is going to get nominated with anything less than a promise of unconditional repeal. It could be only then, just prior to the presidential election that Democrats relent and join Republicans in repealing Obamacare with a solemn promise to the voters never to tinker with health care again.


  1. I agree. This could be the gift that keeps on giving.

  2. Well, now we need to stop fighting ourselves though. The establishment Republicans are as corrupt as the Democrats.