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Wednesday, October 10, 2012

University of Colorado Predicts Romney Win with 335 Electoral Votes

Yesterday I wrote about a model that forecasts Obama would lose Ohio by 12 points. That model was based on voter turnout and the bell weather county, Cuyahoga . There is a model created by Kenneth Bickers and Michael Berry at the University of Colorado that uses only economic data that has correctly called every presidential election since 1980. The model uses state by state economic data such an the unemployment rate and changes in household income. When the forecast was released in late August it predicted that Romney would win 320 electoral votes to Obama's 213. Recently they have updated there economic data and now the authors see New Mexico as a Romney win. The model foresees Romney carrying New Mexico, North Carolina, Virginia, Iowa, New Hampshire, Colorado, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida. Obama is predicted to win Michigan and Nevada.
The final forecast is now Romney with 335 electoral votes to Obama's 208.

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