There is ample history to prove that the midterm elections in a president's second term do not go well for administration's party. It's sometimes called the 6th year curse. In 2006, the 6th year of George Bush's term, the Republicans lost control of both the House and the Senate. The Republicans lost 6 Senate and 30 House seats. In that year only 39% of Gallup respondents thought that most members of congress deserved reelection. In the blowout of 2010 just 30% of the population felt that way. And today? It's almost twice as bad. The latest Gallup poll shows only 17% of the population thinks we should keep the present congressional membership.
The 17% of voters who now say most of Congress deserves re-election is well below the roughly 40% threshold that has historically been associated with major electoral turnover. With this in mind, Congress could be in for a major shake-up. Judging by net seats lost in an election as a percentage of the overall number of seats, 2010, 1994, and 2006 register as the top three recent elections. All of these years had election-year averages of 41% or fewer voters saying most of Congress deserved re-election, with the Republican-wave election of 2010 registering the lowest, 30% -- still 13 percentage points higher than the current reading.
There is a tsunami building and the prime causes of voter disaffection are Obamacare and a government that the public views as too large and too powerful. This may turn out to be a rerun of 2010.