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Tuesday, August 7, 2012

BLS/Obama's job numbers' fairy dust

  The June employment numbers were revised down from 80,000 to 64,000
  And did you know if you work one hour a week, that is considered a "new job" by the BLS? You are a newly employed worker, having gained a job, even at minimum wage with no benefits whatsoever.
  From ZeroHedge:
 As can be seen below, courtesy ofTable A9 from the Household Survey, in July the number of part-time jobs added was 31K, bringing the total to 27,925, just shy of the all time record of 28,038. Full time jobs? Down 228,000 to 114,345,000 lower than the February full-time jobs print of 114,408,000. Once again, more and more Americans are relinquishing any and all benefits associated with Full Time Jobs benefits, and instead are agreeing on a job. Any job. Even if it means working just 1 hour a week. For the BLS it doesn't matter - 1 hour of work a week still qualifies you as a Part-Time worker.
  So if you're encouraged by the "uptick" of job numbers in July that Obama's been touting, be wary. Fox News:
Don’t be surprised if today’s number of new jobs is quietly revised down this time next month and the overall rate is revised up. The hidden headline number in the July report is this: the report shows 155,000 people actually gave up looking for work. 
That’s reflected in the real unemployment rate: 15 percent of the potential workforce can’t find work, has given up looking for work or has accepted a part-time job but needs fulltime work. That’s about 23 million Americans in a nation with an adult population of about 230 million.
Consider this: the number was based on a non seasonally adjusted July number of 132,868. This was a 1.248 million drop from the June print. So how did the smoothing work out to make a real plunge into an "adjusted" rise? Simple: the BLS "added" 377K jobs for seasonal purposes. This was the largest seasonal addition in the past decade for a July NFP print in the past decade, possibly ever, as the first chart below shows. But wait, there's more: 

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