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Tuesday, August 12, 2014

McClatchy-Marist poll: Republicans win generic congressional ballot by 5

With the caveat that one should always be wary of relying on a single poll the latest McClatchy-Marist poll is a heartbreaker for Democrats! Obama is underwater by 12 percent, with 40% approving of his job performance and 52% disapproving which is old news but the poll shows a sharp up tick for Republicans on the generic congressional ballot. It's plus 5%. Responding to the question, "If November's election for Congress were held today, which party's candidate are you more likely to vote for in your district," 43% answered Republican and 38% answered Democrat.
That's a sharp reversal of the April poll that had Democrats with 48% and Republicans with 42% but the internals of the poll make for pleasant reading. The gender gap vanished. It is true that Republicans run stronger among men than among women but they still win among women 43% to 42%. This reflects the lack of a gender gap in the Kentucky Senate race where Mitch McConnell is winning the women's vote against a woman, Alison Lundergan Grimes. Abortion Barbie, Wendy Davis, is also losing the female vote to Greg Abbott in the Texas gubernatorial race.
The biggest surprise is the Hispanic vote. If this poll is accurate everything you have heard about the political fallout from the border crisis is wrong. Yes, the Democrats still win the Hispanic vote-by 2 whole points 40% to 38%. In the April poll Hispanics went with the Democrats by 36 points - 61% to 25%.
About that amnesty, Mr. President, do you feel lucky?

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