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Monday, November 30, 2015

Waiting for Trump to flame out?

We have heard a number of commentator and politicians on cable television announce that Trump's floor, that is the 25% to 30% he has held in most polls, to also be his ceiling. Supposedly he cannot get above his present numbers and will eventually implode. Sound logic or wishful thinking? Probably the latter. Supposedly an establishment candidate will eventually emerge and vanquish the star of reality television but what candidate is that? It was thought to be Bush and then Christie but now it's Marco Rubio.
If all the other candidates were eliminated Rubio would take Trump. Not according to the Economist / YouGov poll of 2000 Americans. They paired several candidates against Trump and against one another and if Trump is going to lose it will be against someone who has yet to announce.

Donald Trump 57% Marco Rubio 43%
Donald Trump 60% Ben Carson 40%
Donald Trump 57% Ted Cruz 43%
And my favorite.
Ted Cruz 55% Marco Rubio 45%
One poll does prove inevitability. The candidates do not run in a national primary rather they must concentrate on winning state elections. A poll of the general population is not as predictive as a poll of registered voters much less a poll of likely voters still one must question what polls the talking heads on cable news are using to support their opinions.

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