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Monday, July 20, 2015

Will Rick Perry and John Kasich make the first debate?

Trump's pathetic attack on the heroism of Sen. John McCain will damage his standing in the polls as it well should but it's doubtful that his polling numbers will be too low to preclude him from the first primary debate sponsored by Fox News. Fox has yet to disclose the fine points of the rules. For instance, will all national polls be used to measure the candidates or will some be excluded.? Will the averages be rounded?
In all probability Bobby Jindal, Carly Fiorina, Lindsey Graham and George Pataki will be watching the debate on TV. Chris Christie and Rick Santorum would make the debate if the decision were made today but just a slight fluctuation in the remaining polls could see Rick Perry and or John Kasich move either or both of them into the home viewing audience. The Real Clear Politics average of polls looks very competitive.
1 Jeb Bush 15.4%
2 Donald Trump 14.2%
3 Scott Walker 9.0%
4 Rand Paul 6.8%
5 Ben Carson 6.6%
6 Marco Rubio 6.4%
7 Mike Huckabee 5.8%
8 Ted Cruz 5.2%
9 Chris Christie 2,6%
10 Rick Santorum 2.2%
11 Rick Perry 2.0%
12 John Kasich 1.6%
13 Bobby Jindal 1.4%
14 Carly Fiorina 1.4%
15 Lindsey Graham 0.4%
16 George Pataki 0.4%

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