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Thursday, July 23, 2015

Does the Quinnipiac poll foretell another wave election?

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The latest Quinnipiac poll released today paints a dire future for Hillary Clinton and the Democratic Party. As you can see from the graphic Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders, and Joe Biden all lose when matched against Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, or Scott Walker in the states of Colorado, Iowa, and Virginia. The margin of error in all three state polls is +/- 2.8 so one can impute a degree of certitude in the wider margins. Bear in mind that Obama carried all three of these states in 2012 and then something happened. In 2014 Cory Gardener retired incumbent Mark Udall in Colorado, in Iowa State Senator Joni Ernst defeated the favorite, Rep. Bruce Braley to capture the seat held by Tom Harkin since 1984 and in Virginia a former GOP state chair, Ed Gillespie who had never run for elective office came within an eyelash of beating Mark Warner. If we see such lopsided results in the future polling of battleground states it may portend the third wave election in six years.
Another point of interest, the Hispanic vote, seems not to be that interesting after all. Colorado was one of four states in which the Hispanic vote was crucial to Obama's 2012 election ( Florida, Nevada, and New Mexico were the other 3 ) yet Scott Walker who has staked out a relatively strong "secure the border" position trounces Dame Hillary by 9 points which is better than Jeb Bush who only bests her by 5.
Missing from the poll was Donald Trump apparently because Quinnipiac does not view him as a competitive candidate. "The worst favorability ratings for any Democrat or Republican in the presidential field belong to Trump: 31 - 58 percent in Colorado, 32 - 57 percent in Iowa and 32 - 61 percent in Virginia." Trump can console himself with the fact that Colorado voters view him more favorably than Chris Christie whose favorability rating is underwater 22 - 52 percent.
The media in general tend to view Hillary's dismal numbers as a function of the loss of trust by the voters. She indeed is viewed as someone not to be trusted. In Colorado 62% of the voters do not trust her as compared to 34% who do. In Iowa the numbers are 59% to 33%, and in Virginia it's 55% to 39%. Funny how that works. She avoids the press as if she has something to hide and all of a sudden the voters think she has something to hide but it's deeper than that. First, she is an abysmal candidate who has been on the national stage too long. She is past her "sell by" date. Second she is paying the price for Obama's excesses. The public is not happy with the present state of affairs. It is concerned about border security, It was not pleased to see Congress pass the TPP, it does not trust Iran and it is tired of the racial strife that has been orchestrated by the radical left and the White House. Obamacare did not live up to its billing and household incomes are flat juxtapose a roaring stock market. Other polling has shown substantial majorities favoring further investigations of Benghazi and the IRS. The Democratic Party has run out of credibility but it's worse than that. The generation that has run Washington for the last 3 decades has overstayed its welcome. It's destined for the scrap yard. If the next round of polling in battleground states repeats today's expect to see plenty of fresh faces inside the Beltway in 2017.

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