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Wednesday, July 29, 2015

Shocker! Trump leads Bush in Florida

This poll coming out of Florida must have shaken the Republican establishment like a sonic boom. Jeb Bush trails Donald Trump by 6 points; 20% to 26.1%. Jeb Bush is losing in his home state and fellow Floridian Marco Rubio is in fourth place behind Scott Walker. The poll breaks down thus:

Donald Trump 26.1
Jeb Bush 20
Scott Walker 12.2
Marco Rubio 9.7
Ben Carson 4.5
Ted Cruz 4.2
John Kasich 4.1
Rand Paul 3.3
Not sure / Someone else 15.9

St Pete Polls .org is not exactly the gold standard in polling however they have had a good run in recent elections. From the Florida Squeeze;
"We’ve previously been critical of aspects of the polling business on this site, including the work of St. Pete Polls. However, in the most recent high-profile Florida elections, the March Special Election in Congressional District 13 and the Democratic Primaries for Governor and Attorney General, St Pete Polls were almost spot on. Polling is a fluid business and methodologies and styles of pollsters often change through time.
In the David Jolly-Alex Sink Special Election St Pete polls nailed the turnout model and the result. Being a local Pinellas firm, perhaps that was an easy one for them, but two statewide Democratic Primary races would be difficult for even the most seasoned polling firms typically"

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