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Friday, October 23, 2015

Carson leads in Iowa as Bush campaign circles the drain

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No one wants to tell readers or the audience that there is no news in GOP primary polling so the public, especially cable news viewers, are served up headlines which may be technically true but not worth the viewer's attention. Rubio gains on Trump, Carson tops Trump, Trump surges to new high are all true statements but the fact is for the last month very little has changed. The above graphic depicts the Real Clear Politics average of national polls for the past 30 days. It's obvious that the polls have solidified as voters have selected their favorite candidates. These early choices are tentative and will change as events change but it may well be there will be little change between now and the early primaries.
Yes, Carson is leading in Iowa but a blind man could have seen that coming. Two polls in the past two days show Carson leading Trump. See the Bloomberg/ Des Moines Register and the Quinnipiac polls. In recent years Iowa Republican caucuses have been dominated by born again Christians. They went for Rick Santorum in 2012 and Mike Huckabee in 2008. It is not surprising that they would warm to Ben Carson but the onus is on Carson to expand beyond this natural constituency.
If there is a story relative to presidential primaries it is Jeb Bush is in serious trouble. Bush has planned a meeting with his family this weekend and the campaign is beginning to circle the drain. Reminiscent of the Perry and Walker campaigns the campaign budget has been cut drastically. Salaried workers have become volunteers and funding is drying up. Last quarter he raised just $13.4 million, well behind Ben Carson's $20.8 million.
Bush has gotten very little for his money Since early last month New Hampshire has been bombarded with ads supporting him for President. His ad presence is more than all the other GOP candidates combined.With the combined spending of the Bush campaign and the Right to Rise super PAC, 4.8 million dollars have been spent on pro-Bush ads in New Hampshire, grabbing 60 percent of available air time, just to run third behind Trump and Carson. This guy has got a real problem!


  1. I think one of the reasons Carson is so popular is that he is sort of the "anti-Trump." That and his resume and demeanor have made him a refreshing change from politics as usual. Yet I don't see him as the same candidate as Santorum and Huckabee. Personally I can't stand either one of those guys; I don't know what it is. I don't think Carson makes his faith a central part of his political message the way S & H do. Sure, a person's faith ---or lack of it--is part of a campaign but there's something unctuous and non-presidential about those two. I dunno though. Look at the jackass we've got who is certainly not presidential.

    1. My short reply is that Carson is genuine and Huckabee and Santorum are not but it goes beyond that. When I listen to Carson I'm reminded of financial guru / talk show host Dave Ramsey. Both sound as if they are struggling to stay awake and frankly I like that cadence. I agree Carson doesn't wear his faith on his coat sleeve and I doubt is S&H do when they are not campaigning which makes me doubt their sincerity. I would love to see but doubt if we ever will see a debate between Carson and Hillary. Carson is the citizen politician that the founding father envisioned, a man who has proven himself in his professional life who turns to public service hoping to make country better and then to leave quietly and quickly. Hillary on the other hand is a wailing harridan.

    2. And she's a dishonest one in addition. I just can't believe how crappy the media is in covering her, gushing over the fact that she didn't melt down. Rather than discuss the substance of what she said (lies), they act like she had a great week because she was able to sneeringly lie without shrieking. What a recommendation.