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Sunday, November 4, 2012

Romney Leads in Minnesota, Tied in Pennsylvania

I have liked Minnesota and Pennsylvania as Romney upsets for sometime and have told a few friends to watch these races. The America Future Fund poll in a survey of 500 likely voters finds Romney leading in true blue Minnesota 46% to 45%. From a summary released by the poll;
As we are seeing across the country, Romney’s lead in the state is
drive by Independent voters. (49% Romney/36% Obama). Due to
his consistent advantage with Independents, Romney leads or is
tied with President across the battleground states, even those that
traditionally lean Democratic.

Minnesota is very much a battleground state due the low minority
population of the state and President Obama’s problems with white
voters. Romney has a good chance to pull off one of the biggest upsets
of the election cycle in this state.
To those who argue that the AFF poll is Republican leaning I would reply it is at least as reliable as the goofy Quinnipiac and Marist polls that are taken as gospel in the mainstream media.
The Tribune Susquehanna poll, released just hours ago, has Pennsylvania tied at 47%. In the last three statewide contests, Susquehanna had an average margin of error from the actual result of one point, making it Pennsylvania's most accurate pollster. If voter intensity decides the election it's Katie bar door and time for Obama to bring in the fat lady.

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