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Thursday, December 8, 2011

Quinnipiac: Good News For Gingrich in FLA, OH, & PA

The latest Quinnipiac Poll out today should give Obama Democrats stomach cramps. Starting with Ohio, Obama loses to Romney 43 to 42 percent and loses to Gingrich by the same margin 43 to 42. In Florida it's Romney 45 to Obama's 42 percent with Obama beating Gingrich 46 to 44 percent. Obama does do slightly better in Pennsylvania beating Romney 46 to 43 percent and Gingrich 48 to 40 percent.

Gingrich leads the Republican primary field in Ohio with 36 percent, 2-1 over Romney's 18 percent. No other candidate tops 7 percent. Matched head to head Gingrich pounds Romney 55 to 28 percent. That may give the Romney people the same pangs as the White House. Yes, there's a lot of that going around. Evidently character doesn't mean that much to Ohioans at least compared to competency. Romney wins the strong moral character contest 30 to 13 percent but that's only a moral victory. He loses to Gingrich 44 to 20 percent on leadership, 54 to 20 percent on knowledge and experience and 51 to 11 percent on foreign policy.

In Florida Gingrich is top dog in the Republican pack with 35 percent, followed by Romney with 22 percent and no other candidate above 8 percent. Head to head it's Gingrich going away, 52 to 34 percent. Again, Romney with the strong moral character wins 35 to 13 percent on that question but Gingrich wins 58 to 15 percent on foreign policy, 55 to 22 on knowledge and experience, and 42 to 28 on leadership.

Turning to the Keystone state, Gingrich is number one in the primary pack with 31 percent, eclipsing Romney's 17 percent. Native son Rick Santorum has 9 percent and no other candidate tops 7 percent. In a two-man face off, Gingrich thumps Romney 50 - 31 percent. Again with the moral victory, Romney wins on character 28 to 9 percent but loses to Gingrich on foreign policy 47 to 12 percent, knowledge and experience 49 to 18 percent, and leadership 41 to 22 percent. Republicans aren't looking for someone to canonize, just someone who can get the job done.

Since 1960 no candidate has won the White House with out winning two of these three states. In all three states the economy is registered as the voters' chief concern. Ohio is a big worry for the White House because of the large number of white, blue collar, high school educated voters to which Obama is virtually anathema. Recently the Obama campaign indicated that affable Joe Biden would play a key role in these three states since Obama doesn't wear well with the voters but affable Joe is underwater in the approve/disapprove poll in Ohio and Florida and barely ahead in his native Pennsylvania. To sum up the poll, if you are Gingrich it's great; if you are someone else bite the bullet until the pain subsides.

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