Ron Paul Is Competitive With Obama

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Ron Paul is competitive with Obama. Scott Rasmussen has released a new poll that show Obama beating Ron Paul 41-37 percent. That's within the 5 percent margin of error. Dick Morris has looked at polling data all the way back to the 1960's and in presidential elections 80 percent of the undecided went to the challenger. If that rule were to hold true in this case Paul would get 54 percent of the vote. All this speculation is really, just plain silly at this point. The election is more than a year away; far too early to start speculating on final election numbers. But notice that even against the serious candidate, John Huntsman Obama cannot poll 50 percent while he loses to Romney by 1 percent. Rasmussen points out that Romney's numbers really aren't his own. He beats Obama by 1 percentage point solely because he is perceived to be the front runner. In 2004 when Howard Dean was thought to be the front runner he polled the best of the Democrats against George Bush. When John Kerry became the front runner his numbers matched Dean's. In other words any Republican front runner would beat Obama by 1 percent. BTW Michael Barone has written a facinating article where he compares presidental elections to the previous mid term election and that does not make Obama's chances look any better.