The lights could go out early for the Democrats

It could be we will be able to go to bed early tomorrow evening knowing the Republicans have won control of the senate. Let's begin with Georgia where the Democrats thought they could pump up Michelle Nunn into something resembling a senator and snare the safe seat of retiring Senator Saxby Chambliss. She has no political experience but her dad did, ergo she would be a formidable candidate. She hails from Points of Light, a civic not for profit corporation. They should have picked someone from Wish Upon a Star.
Her much touted surge in the polls was just that. It was brief and it is over. She won 5 straight polls in mid October, never by more than 3 points. Her last winning poll was conducted by Insider Advantage 10/20-10/21. She has managed one tie in the last 9 polls. For my money David Perdue will win the race outright tomorrow night, avoiding a runoff.
Looking toward Kentucky where the Democrats picked Alison Lundergan Grimes to vanquish Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, I could write pages of superlatives relative to Grimes' hair and teeth but they are her sole personal assets. She has run a very controlled and closed campaign with predictable results. McConnell has bested her in the last 3 polls by margins of 5, 7, and 9. Presently Grimes would be out of her depth serving mint juleps at Churchill Downs but with practice could become a truly great cocktail waitress.
The race in Kansas continues to worry me. I don't remember a campaign where both candidate trended lower in the polls as election day nears. It looks like a race to the bottom.View their trend lines here. Common sense dictates that Pat Roberts should be able to out hustle the vote on election day as independent Greg Orman has no organization yet it's hard to be optimistic about an incumbent who is at 41% in the polls and down by 1 point in the latest poll. Still, Kansas hasn't sent a Democrat to the senate since 1938.
Moving to offense, Tom Cotton is a lock to beat Mark Pryor in Arkansas. The same can be said for Shelley Moore Capito in West Virginia, Mike Rounds in South Dakota and Steve Daines in Montana.
In Louisiana Rob Maness could force the senate race into a December runoff. He's a retired Air Force colonel and enjoys support from several national conservative groups, including the Senate Conservatives Fund and the Tea Party Express, which have spent millions on attack ads. He pulls about 11% of the vote in polling and if these horses run to form will deprive both Mary Landrieu and Bill Cassidy the needed majority in Louisiana's jungle primary. Head to head Cassidy leads Landrieu by 4.8 points in the Real Clear Politics average of polls.
The elections in two Eastern time zone states, North Carolina and New Hampshire should give an early indication of a wave election. Aside from the time zone the races are similar in that in both cases the incumbent is female and the challenger is male. Also both races are in a dead heat. In North Carolina Kay Hagan leads Thom Tillis by 0.7% in the Real Clear Politics average of polls. In New Hampshire Jeanne Shaheen leads Scott Brown by 0.8% in the RCP average. If the Democrats lose either of these it's light out. Go to bed you have your answer. I'll put my money on Brown. He certainly wasn't my favorite senator but he a great campaigner. This race was not supposed to be close.
Iowa was another seat that was thought to be safe Democrat. The highly respected Des Moines Register put Joni Ernst ahead of Bruce Braley by 7 points. She has a 1.8% lead in the RCP average. Maybe she will serve Rocky Mountain oysters at her victory dinner. Right this down as a GOP win.
Also put Cory Gardner in the win column. He leads incumbent Senator Mark Udall by 2.5% in the RCP average. Despite his moderate tone his conservative voting score is 1 point better that Michele Bachmann's.
Lastly, Alaska. The state is all but impossible to poll or rather impossible to poll cheaply but the polling to date gives Dan Sullivan a 2.4% edge in the RCP average over Mark Begich.
In an earlier post I cited a post by Sean Trende at Real Clear Politics. Trende compared Obama's job approval rating to senate race outcomes in both the 2010 and 2012. He found that Democratic Senate candidates ran no better than 5 percent ahead of Obama's approval rating 75% of the time and that no candidate ran better than 10 points ahead of Obama's job approval. Trende used exit polling for his study. Obviously I don't have exit polling but PPP has polled all of the above states in the last 3 days. That polling includes Obama's job approval in each of those states. If the 10% rule holds in 2014 the Democrats have a real problem.

State	Candidates	Obama Job Approval
Alaska	Sullivan vs Begich	34%
Arkansas	Cotton vs .Pryor	29%
Colorado	Gardner vs Udall	35%
Georgia	Perdue vs Nunn	37%
Iowa	Ernst vs Braley	38%
Kentucky	McConnell vs Grimes	30%
Louisiana	Cassidy vs Landrieu	38%
New Hampshire	Brown vs Shaheen	36%
North Carolina	Tillis vs Hagan	39%

Omitted from the table was Kansas as there is no Democratic candidate on the ballot. Just because no Democrat has ever run more than 10 points ahead of Obama does not mean it cannot be done. A critical error by a Republican tomorrow could change that but a critical error at this late date is pretty remote. A super Democratic candidate could also break the trend but none of the above have run a super race to date. With just a small wave, not a tsunami we could be looking at a 10 seat gain.