Joni Ernst and Mitch McConnell hit 50% in recent polling

A spate of polls released this evening shows Republicans adding to their advantage as election day nears. The Des Moines, Iowa poll puts Joni Ernst up 7 over Bruce Braley 51 to 44 percent. It also gives Governor Terry Branstad a 24 point advantage over his challenger, Jack Hatch.
Public Policy Polling gives Senator Mitch McConnell an 8 point edge over Alison Lundergan Grimes 50-42 percent, with Libertarian David Patterson getting 3%. In a head to head match up, McConnell's lead is 53-44 percent. It also puts Rep. Tom Cotton ahead of Senator Mark Pryor by 8, 49-41 percent. The poll finds Senator Mary Landrieu hanging on in Louisiana. She has 43% to 35% for Bill Cassidy, 15% for Rob Maness which would force a December runoff. Head to head, she trails Cassidy by 1 point 47-48 percent.
Nate Silver's Five Thirty Eight web site, updated at 8:42 this evening now gives the Republicans a 71.6% probability of taking the senate. It also gives the Republicans 21.7% chance of capturing 52 seats and a 20.8% chance of grabbing 53 seats.

Of the three election modeling web sites this site has been the most conservative in its estimates of Republican senate success. The New York Times gives the Republicans a 70% chance of winning a majority while the Washington Post reckons the probability at 94%