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Wednesday, September 28, 2016

Hillary's Uphill Climb

In 2010 the Tea Party movement served notice that it was not to be dismissed as a radical fringe group by capturing 63 House seats. Just to make sure the point was well taken it also retired 6 sitting Democratic Senators and over 700 state legislators. By 2014 the Senate moved into Republican control. For a variety of reasons the Tea Party has lost much of its awe but the trend toward the center right begun in 2010 has not abated.
 It's wildly amusing to watch CNN commentators explain away Trump's success as temporary in, for instance, Iowa where he holds 4.8% edge in the RCP average. "Obama carried it twice. Hillary needs to do a little work there but it will come home". Don't bet your lunch money on it. In spite of Obama and Hillary's war on coal Hillary has a better chance of carrying Kentucky.
"Trump is wasting his time campaigning in Colorado."
Really? His odds are better there than in Ohio.
 In a little noticed post from February of this year Gallup proclaimed that for the first time in the history of its tracking poll there are more Republican than Democratic states.
In 2009 Obama could count on 29 solid Democratic states and McCain could console himself with the knowledge that 4 states were solidly behind him. In addition to being a weaker candidate than Obama Hillary faces a much less friendlier map. She has 11 solid Democratic states while Trump has 12 solid Republican. When leaner are included it gets worse. Three state lean Democrat 8 lean Republican. The poll finds 16 states to be competitive which is 6 more than Obama had to worry about. While the Democrats still maintain a 43 to 40 percent edge over Republicans nationally it does not help their cause that the majority is concentrated in California, Illinois and New York.
The below graphic shows the partisan advantage for each state.

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