Trump encourages Toledo

  I have a FB friend who attended the Trump rally in Toledo Wednesday night.
  What's interesting to me about this friend is that he has been pro-America, *rabidly* anti-Trump, pro Cruz for most of this primary season. He's intelligent, well-read and has been burned by the out sourcing of jobs to other countries.
  My friend is now pro-Trump, something many of my Republican friends are not.
  Some of my Republican friends despise Trump so much they can hardly mention his name without spitting an invective. Well, ok. Swear word after swear word.
  What's astounding to me is that the whole Russia kerfuffle has turned into a loyalty issue for some fence sitters, as if the sarcastic remark Trump made about Russian authorities finding Hillary's emails while our authorities could not was treasonous. 
  Somehow Trump's penchant for humor isn't appreciated by the lightly informed.
  Trump needs to monitor his mouth; he can't win if he keeps making cracks like the one about the father of a Muslim American soldier who was killed in the line of duty in service to our country. 
  I believe over the next few months, the more people figure how unAmerican and bad Hillary Clinton is, the more will come around to Trump's side.
  It's encouraging and I thank this friend for allowing me to use this pictures; there was standing room only at this event. The Huntington Center seats 8,000 while others waited outside. Almost 18,000 people were watching on Right Side Broadcasting alone; I didn't monitor local news stations' broadcasts but we can take encouragement from the fact that in the rust belt of Democrat depressed Toledo, so many people are interested not only in the election but in Trump.
  Now Trump needs to polish his presentation. His kids are a great representation of himself; his work record for creating jobs is outstanding, regardless what leftists say.
  So here we go.
  One voter at a time.
  He says he'll be back in 2 weeks.

Trump live streamed from Toledo rally

Let me remind you that Toledo is hard core liberal leftist Democrat. Trump's plane has landed. Almost Over 5,000 11,000 12,000 17,000 18,000people watching online.

Local Debate on Trump

Debate on Should Conservatives vote for Trump

Date Change: DEBATE ON SHOULD CONSERVATIVES VOTE FOR TRUMP
Perrysburg, OH: Due to the scheduled visit to NW Ohio by Candidate Donald Trump, the debate the Northwest Ohio Conservative Coalition (NWOCC) is sponsoring on "Should Conservatives Vote for Trump?" has been cancelled for this Wednesday July 27 and will be held on Monday August 29, 2016 at 6:00pm at the Maumee Library, 501 River Road, Maumee OH. 

The Northwest Ohio Conservative Coalition is a non-connected political action committee registered with the Federal Elections Commission and the State of Ohio. For more information, visit our webpage www.nwohiocc.com or contact us at nwohioconservativecoalition@gmail.com.

In marketing, has the Left met its match in Trump?

  Am I cynical?
  I watched Obama joke during an announcement of support for Germany given the latest terrorist attack and thought, "That dude doesn't care about anybody but himself."
  Earlier in the day Obama shocked in his conference with the Mexican president by sneering that Trump's vision didn't "jibe with the facts," regardless what people think:

"This idea that America is somehow on the verge of collapse, this vision of violence and chaos everywhere, doesn't really jibe with the experience of most people," Obama said during a press conference in the White House East Room alongside Mexican President Enrique Pena Nieto. 

"I think it is important to be absolutely clear here. Some of the fears that were expressed throughout the week just don't jibe with the facts," he said, going on to cite statistics showing crime rates have fallen under his presidency."

  The media immediately leaped to Obama's support with figures to prove that Obama is correct.

  Now, the crime statistics are not what I'm writing about in this post.

  Clinton's campaign immediately (12:59 a.m.) pronounced the Trump message "dark," and the media immediately began parroting it a few hours later and in the morning news.

  Yet the truth is that Obama's vision of America is dark. 

  For years Obama has drilled into the public psyche that Americans are hateful bigots, Americans are cheap and selfish, that Americans should be more willing to "share," that cops are bad, that guns, guns, guns are destroying our society, that America itself has made mistake after mistake on a global scale.

  “People are dying and the constant excuses for inaction no longer suffice,”Obama announced after one "tragedy."

  "If they bring a knife to a fight, bring a gun," he said to "his" people about Republicans.

  "We should politicize mass shootings," he said another time.

  The only time Obama has ever been optimistic about our country was before his first election when he claimed there were no white Americans or black Americans.

  IOW, Obama's message has for years been a dark one and now suddenly he's positing himself as cheerful?
  In reality Obama's government has been working at people for years to make them fearful: listen to the public service ads that are all over radio, television and even billboards.

  Got a little cough? Could be (_____)? Get to a doctor QUICK!

  Air conditioning on? Could be causing (____) in children. Plus you're killing the environment!

  Depressed? Afraid to go outside? Could be (______) which can be cured by (taking this medication). Oh, and you're addicted to (____)? GET OFF IT!

  By the time you're done listening to these often fearmongering PSAs, you can be so paranoid that you DON'T want to go outside. Their production is paid by the government and broadcast free by the Ad Council, which is described here at Reddit:

The ads airing on your local radio station are being aired to fill time because there were not enough real commercials. The Ad Council does produce ad campaigns and distribute ads to basically every TV and radio station in the country. They do not pay for airtime as a typical advertiser would.

  This is the Obama administration's version of something called nudging, which the left wing Politico discusses here:

The president officially adopted the idea last year when he launched the White House’s Social and Behavioral Science Team (SBST), a cross-agency effort to bring behavioral science research into the policymaking process. Now the team has published its first annual report on this experiment.

How did it go? Mostly, the efforts appear to have worked...

  Yes, Obama has a team and an executive order to direct Americans' behavior, better serve the American people, followed by numerous "nudges" to be fearful about their bodies, their lives and their mental health.
  He's been doing it a while, described here at Marketingsociety, which appears to sympathize with Obama's version of what's a lie:

So the campaign team addressed the issue of how to counter rumours, myths and outright lies most effectively. Research conducted by them into countering myths and rumours has illustrated a number of crucial points.

One is that the more we hear a false rumour or myth the more likely we are to believe it to be true, it's known as repetition bias. Our minds make use of heuristics (short-cuts or rules of thumb) and one of our rules of thumb is that things we hear often must be or at least tend to be true.

In addition, in the long term, we tend to remember stuff we have heard or read not in full but only as a kind of truncated word association in which the most vivid elements stick with us and the qualifying expressions get a tad blurry: eg where the initial phrase we might hear or read is actually 'Roberto is not in the Mafia' after a while we'll recall only ‘Roberto’ and ‘Mafia’ inextricably and (perhaps) erroneously linking the two. We seem to forget the ‘not’ or the negative part of the statement over time.[6] Our long term memories are often poor - especially for subjects and facts on the periphery of our interest, which presumably the Mafia is for most readers…! On this basis it's probably wisest to give no air time at all to denials as it's likely this will only serve to strengthen the falsehood in the minds of listeners.

  I find this explanation quite interesting, both in terms of what Obama has done and how Trump is running his campaign. 
  Repetition bias. Crooked Hillary?
  Word association. Giving no air time to denials. You mean like accusations of plagiarism? 
  Hm.
  Maybe Obama--and the Clinton campaign--have finally met their match.
UPDATE: An excellent take down here.

Kaine and Unable

This is the big thang on Twitter, in case you didn't know. Heh.

So you're telling me the Mormons are the real majority?

In 1977 PBS in a moment of uncharacteristic excellence premiered In Search of the Real America. The show was hosted by Ben Wattenberg, a neo conservative Democrat who had co authored with Richard Scammon, a former director of the Census Bureau The Real Majority in which the two posited their finding that the typical American was a 47-year-old homemaker from the outskirts of Dayton, Ohio, whose husband was a machinist. That was quite an accomplishment in the days before computer generated voter models and it was widely referenced in the 1972 presidential election.
 As for the PBS show one might guess that Wattenberg's motivation for producing it was to unite his badly fractured party which had split asunder over Vietnam and along with the rest of the nation was treading water in Mr. Carter's "national malaise" but that aside an update to his Real Majority is certainly in order.



Anyone who watched the Republican primaries unfold must conclude that's Trump's perception of the Republican and probably the national electorate was more spot on than any of the competition but there is one particular demographic that seems to have been misunderstood, namely the so called evangelical Christians. Supposedly this group would fall head over heels for Ted Cruz and his rather vague brand of Cotton Mather's Calvinism but no. They went for Trump. They went for Trump throughout the South and they went for Trump throughout the Midwest save Iowa, leaving Cruz looking like a Rocky Mountain regional candidate who could occasionally capture a Midwestern state.
The Cruz quest for the presidency was dependant on the notion that he could bring to the polls in the general election the 4 million conservative Republicans who sat out the 2012 election. Many of the stay at home Republicans were deemed to be evangelical Christians, a nebulous term that has found favor in the liberal media. I would submit that the elusive demographic Cruz was appealing to has been extinct for almost two generations. The elder Cruz, who was kept out of sight by the campaign, is rumored to be a full blown head case, who could find friends among the Appalachian snake handlers of bygone days but what about Ted Cruz? Other than his personal assertions there is scant evidence to suggest that he is a religious person. Where does he go to church? Where is the preacher who guides him through matters of faith?
This is where it gets funny. From NPR:

Texas Sen. Ted Cruz's campaign is obsessed with data. If there's political science research proving an idea works, there's a good chance his staff has studied it. That's why Cruz didn't back down last month when the campaign came under fire for sending mail to Iowa voters shaming them for not showing up to vote in recent elections.
(SOUNDBITE OF ARCHIVED RECORDING)
TED CRUZ: And I will apologize to nobody for using every tool we can to encourage Iowa voters to come out and vote.
SIEGEL: NPR's Scott Detrow takes a look at the campaign's unique analytical effort - and attempt to try to quantify the personality type of every Republican voter it's trying to woo.
SCOTT DETROW, BYLINE: Ted Cruz's campaign wants to talk to you one-on-one. And to have a good one-on-one conversation, you need to know who you're talking to. That's why you probably Google blind dates before you meet them, and it's why Cruz is spending millions working with a British company that claims it's put together more than 4,000 data points on every single American voter - how often you vote, who your friends are and, most importantly for Cruz, what issues you're interested in.
CHRIS WILSON: What this allows us to do is do something that products have been for a long time, which is market to individuals specifically, be able to talk to them about things they care about.
DETROW: That's Chris Wilson, Cruz's director of research and analytics. But he says knowing the issues isn't enough. The campaign needs to know why a voter cares about something like gun rights.
WILSON: There are people who support the Second Amendment because they live in a rural community, they like to go hunting. There are people who are supporting the Second Amendment because they care about the Constitution. There are people who support the Second Amendment because they want to be able to protect themselves and their families.
DETROW: The Cruz campaign has divided Republicans into five different personality types. When the campaign reaches out with phone calls, canvassing or targeted ads, each group gets a slightly different sales pitch.
ALEXANDER NIX: We're appealing to the same demographic on the same issue, yet how we nuance this engagement is completely different.
DETROW: At this point, you're probably wondering how all this works. Well, Alexander Nix is the person to explain it. He's the CEO of Cambridge Analytica, the British company the Cruz campaign is working with on all this. Nix says a lot of the data the company has on personality types comes from...

Hmm. Five different Republican personality types gleaned from 4,000 data points on each voter? Wow! And people worry about the NSA's propensity to data mine!
 Janet Yellen, and Ben Bernanke before her, have sufficiently demonstrated the limits of data's ability to predict sans proper interpretation. So what the hell does Cambridge Analytica know about evangelical Christians? All computer models begin with assumptions about the subject under study. In the physical sciences where water always boils at 212 degrees Fahrenheit, the researcher's job is easier but in economic or political models the researcher must make judgments. Economic models are usually easier to construct than political models because the variables have a numeric value. One can place a dollar value on an ounce of gold but how does one measure voter sentiment on a given issue? Usually a numerical value is given to a response. Published polling results that vary widely demonstrate the limits to polling and modeling based on polling must be taken with a grain of salt.
So, no one who actually knows an evangelical Christian sets out to determine how that demo will vote. What could go wrong? For one thing mainline Protestantism has changed and so have the evangelicals. They care more about the price of Walmart's Wrangler jeans than the state of Sam Walton's soul. If someone were to tell them that Donald Trump was going to hell the would probably express some personal sadness but also express hope that that wouldn't happen until after he finished the wall. Sarah Palin, Mike Huckabee and Jimmy Carter are more representative of evangelical Christians than the unflattering caricature perpetuated by the media. The typical evangelical does not sleep with a AR-15 mounted above the bed and a Bible under the pillow.
The Breitbart post, Salt Lake Tribune — ‘Cruz in Utah: Glenn Beck Says He’s Fulfillment of Mormon Prophecy’ suggested that Cambridge Analytica's model must be a few degrees off target. OMG, they missed the Evangelicals and hit the Mormons with their micro targeting. What else explains Cruz's success in the West and his failure everywhere else? Romney's dislike for Trump is probably based in jealousy and purely partisan differences but what about the remainder of the Mormon community? Are they simply pro Ted Cruz? I think so but I'll let Cambridge Analytica figure it out while I reread Wattenberg's Real Majority.

Cold fish Obama emerges again

  This is incredible. How does Obama manage to turn everything into an item about himself. It's not just the "grinning" that Drudge mentions in the Daily Mail article about Obama joking about Malia while discussing the murders in Germany.
  We see this every time there's a disaster.
  It's that peculiar separation from humanity while fixating on himself and his place in the world that is so disconcerting. He seems to display this kind of behavior in every serious situation, oddly disassociating himself from tragedy and instead behaving robotically, as if he's better than the rest of the world, too superior to have to taint his life by acknowledging others' pain and sorrow.

I can't forgive Republicans who reject the will of the people

  I confess I've only been dropping in and out of the Republican convention. I know I'll be voting against Hillary Clinton, so what's to learn?
  What I have accidentally learned while watching the shenanigans this week is disturbing; why would I want to make myself more miserable by watching all of it.
  There's also always the problem of turning on Fox to see Shep Smith simpering and squealing, batting his eyelashes to garner admiration from his inflamed audience, which is another reason to avoid anything around 3 or in an emergency. 
  If you saw his virtue signaling "interview" with Bobby Jindal declaring that saying "all lives matter" is insulting, you know what I'm talking about. Let's not talk about GWB.
  Do I give a crap about Melania's (who knows 5 languages, btw) so-called plagiarism? 
  No.
  Was it plagiarism?
  Well, I guess if she repeated the same tired tropes that all politicians say to convince people to like them, yes, it probably was.
  Did I like her speech? I thought she was extremely compelling, not just because of her sexy accent and physical beauty, but because she seems intelligent and kind. 
  Will Melania's "plagiarism" hurt the Trump campaign?
  Um, no. 
  In fact, I think the pathetic mass media pile on will only solidify Trump's support. 
  My GOSH, it was absurd, especially given the willful ignorance of the press regarding the plagiarism, insults, threats, theft, lies and law breaking of the Democrat party and in particular the criminal Hillary Clinton.
  There were 27 words "plagiarized" in that speech: words like "your word is your bond" type stuff. Gee, nobody ever says that in America, do they? 
  In fact, the "comedians" in the Democrat party have immediately emerged with "comedy" imitating Melania, who they claim plagiarized "huge chunks" of Michelle Obama's speech. HUGE CHUNKS? Hahahahah! Aren't they funnY?
  Though a speech writer (who happens to be a Democrat) has now confessed to the "crime" of plagiarism, regardless the plagiarism of Biden/Obama/Democrats I have to wonder if, indeed, this was an act of sabotage or, at least, extreme sloppiness by the Trump campaign.
  Powerline bloggers, who aren't big Trump fans, have a good commentary:

Yes, it was sloppy and amateurish for such a mistake to have been made, but compared to what Democrats do Melania’s stumble isn’t even a parking ticket. Democrats simply lie about everything. It’s their business model. Maybe they just take their clues from Hillary and Elizabeth Warren. (Memo to Trump, incidentally: You should be calling Warren Fauxcahontas, since she made up her Indian heritage as a way of perpetrating a fraud on several universities in their hiring decisions. And she plagiarized a cookbook. Seriously: a cookbook.) And the media seldom devote as much attention to liberal lies.

  Now, maybe Trump has rejected the RNC's help in organizing this rally, but I sorta doubt it. Given the frequent and obvious hostilities expressed by so-called Republicans toward Trump, nothing would be more believable than the fact that the RNC is not only letting the lack of organization disrupt the rallies, but also encouraging it.
  Given that John Kasich hasn't seen fit to attend the RNC event in our own state, nothing, nothing would surprise me or anyone else who's watching as events unfold.
  The problem for these snobs is that Trump voters are so fed up with the media and the superiority of the Republican elite that we can see right through the (insert invective here. I'm trying to exercise a period in my life where I refrain from cussing.).
  Here's an example of the repugnant reportage on the right from the Weekly Standard:

There are worse fates than covering a Republican convention, but damned if I can think of any. The traffic is ungodly. The frumpy delegates look like they were tailored by Betsy Ross. The protesters smell like old cheese stored in a used sweat sock. And in the unlikely event you stumble upon an untold story, rest assured it will have been tweeted six ways to Sunday before you can even turn on your laptop.

  Oh, ho, ho! Apparently Mr. Labash wears only Armani and cleanses his pores several times daily, not to mention the requisite Botox and organic face peels. Is he being comically sarcastic? Who knows and who cares? I'm not forgiving him or reading him again.
  Then there's Allahpundit over at Hot Air who has heard some juicy gossip from the NYT that Trump offered both domestic and foreign policy control to Kasich if he'd consider being VP:

To believe this, you’d need to believe that Donald Trump has no interest in the presidency apart from its value as the ultimate ego trip, a supreme indulgence to vanity in which everyone he meets will now have to treat him as the world’s biggest big shot.

So, yeah: Highly plausible.

  Work your way through the rest of the post and you'll just feel virtually kissed and hugged by Allahpundit if you support Trump, even marginally. Well, not.
  I have "conservative" FB friends who post repeatedly how much they despise/fear/disdain Trump and his supporters. 
  Regardless what Hillary Clinton will do to the Supreme Court, regardless what Hillary Clinton will do to national security, regardless the number of lies Hillary Clinton has told and the crimes she has committed, not to mention her absolutely contemptuous attitude toward any American who doesn't support her, my "conservative" friends, many of whom are Christian, remain themselves contemptuous of Trump and his supporters.
  Look, we know what Hillary will do to this country. We don't know with Trump.
  Trump is soliciting advice from good people (notwithstanding the execrable Roger Stone), and his kids sure are great examples of successful hard workers who exemplify the American dream. Yeah, he had 3 marriages but you don't get kids like that without some moral fiber.
  Several conclusions I have reached, then: the media aren't even pretending to be anything but an arm of the Democrat Party.
  Many Republican elites aren't even pretending to be anything but an arm of the Democrat Party, which is exactly why Trump is where he is now.
  The evil that we see enacted daily on our tv screens has one goal: break down the current legal system and use that opportunity to reinstate something sinister.
  There's much more at stake than just an election.
  And for that fact alone, it's hard to forgive the so-called "Republicans'" or "conservatives" who refuse to are behaving so badly right now.
  The will of the people has been determined. 
  Why are they having so much trouble accepting it?
  Why?

The Democrat party: an ugly story

  Having watched "President" Obama speak at the memorial for 5 murdered white policemen, I have to say it was the same old thing: grievances, "institutional" racism, y'all have to admit cops are racist, lofty nasal rhetoric intended to "lift" his admirers while slapping his detractors over the face.
  The news of the past week has been sickening; how hilarious to hear Democrat liars call Mike Pence, a conservative Christian fiscally responsible politician, an "extreme" choice.
  Because Hillary isn't extreme; well, maybe extremely careless, but not...oh, forget it.
  I might have to break my movie boycott to go see how extreme Hillary is and how extreme the Democrat party has become.
  Here's a preview of Dinesh D'Souza's Hillary's America.
  You will remember D'Souza was jailed for doing something far less than Democrats do all the time.

  Democrats.
  The party funded by death and the sale of baby body parts.
  The party of no borders.
  The party of denial of truth.
  Hillary's machine.
  So, yeah.
  I'll vote for Trump.

BLM, AG Lynch plan "summer of chaos," massive disruptions & conventions shutdowns

  Hacked SMS texts reveal that  Black Lives Matter leaders, who have met with the Obama administration, AG Lynch and Obama himself.
  Over at the DC Clothesline, the texts are revealed, including their contempt for even their white allies who apparently have infiltrated both conventions. They are counting on fear to throw the country into a "summer of chaos" that will enable Obama to enact "martial law."

JE: “Have you spoken with Mrs. Lynch [Attorney General Loretta Lynch] recently about the plan for the summer and fall leading up to the elections.”
DM: “We spoke two weeks and they want us to start really pushing how racist Trump is now instead of waiting so the others can start getting the protesters ready to shut both conventions down.”

DM: “If we can get both conventions shut down for messing over Bernie and for having racist Trump, then get martial law declared so Obama can stay in office we will win. Call you soon when I get to my dads so I can use his landline and we can talk more on this.

(snip)

DM: “With the support we have from Mrs. Lynch and the help we’ve got from Sam and others it won’t be hard to cause enough….”

 Read it all here.

Can America afford an "extremely careless" president? I don't think so.

  Of course, most of us believed the FBI would cave to the Democrat machine, though some tiny hope flickered that he would rise above the bullying in which Obama and the Clintons have perpetrated on the government sectors.
  One of the problems with Comey "clearing" Clinton of the email scandal is that the American people have lost any faith in the administration of justice in this country.
  It's not just Tea Partiers; the public in general is being told over and over you don't have to obey the law, and that there are different rules for the elite in this country.
  This is an outrage, something we'll be chewing on for the next few weeks if not months.
  Sanctuary cities? Break the law, no problem.
  IRS abuse? No problem.
  Riot in Baltimore? Hey, the fashionable mayor will give you "space" to "deshtroy."
  Before we get too hysterical about the situation in this country, let's back up.
  There is another investigation into the Clinton Foundation's corruption, though we don't hold much hope for justice, after what we've seen.
  Comey's behavior was "shtrange" in that he took no questions and clearly stated that Hillary's behavior was "extremely careless."
  Questions linger, even after Comey's half ass explanation. 
  Hillary's team freely deleted government documents, sloppily moving from one server to another and trying to delete documents she was legally bound to preserve.
  Comey clearly found top secret information that Clinton had denied having sent or received.
  The timing is extremely fishy.
  People know this.
  But politically....
  Does anyone doubt that this was all timed to coincide with Obama's appearance with Hillary today?
  Does anyone doubt that those of us--even the marginally convinced--who've followed what's happening will be even more determined than ever to get out the vote in November?
  Yes, she should have had charges brought.
  But the fact that she hasn't really been cleared (extremely careless?) will only bring strength to those who oppose her.
  Politically this FBI announcement just confirms what everyone believes about justice and politics in this country: the corruption runs deep and we have to do something about it.
  Comey says her "intent" was not to deceive?
  And how would he know that, given that she and her minions destroyed, moved, scattered top secret documents and then lied about it?
  Now the question.
  In this age and given the Wikileaks release of Hillary's emails, can America really afford to have an "extremely careless" person in charge of our security?  
  This Comey announcement may serve to work against Hillary, moreso than if she had had charges recommended against her.