This is not one of those forecasts you would want to bank on. Firstly, being right fifty out fifty times is pretty high bar. Secondly, models such as this are based on past performance and conditions and circumstances seldom repeat themselves with such precision. For example the earthquake in Japan affected the auto industry in Michigan which is completely unforeseeable, or the discovery of the Utica shale gas in Ohio maybe more bountiful than initially projected leading to a faster recovery. Nevertheless the overall projection is pretty dire. The forecast is made by IHS Global. Too bad for Michigan, Nevada, and Rhode Island if they are right.
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