Way back on June 6 I wrote a post Tom Smith Is Down But Not Out. At that time Senator Bob Casey was leading Tea Party founder Tom Smith 42% to 21% in a Franklin poll. The latest Quinnipiac University poll, which has a + 7 Democratic bias, has Casey leading Smith 48% to 45%, within the margin of error and too close to call. Smith has poured over $15 million of his own money into the race but has also out raised Casey in campaign contributions.
"All due respect to [the Republican Party of Pennsylvania] but I didn't see where they had a Pat Toomey-type person warmed up in the bullpen ready to take on Sen. Bob Casey," he said. Mr. Smith saw himself as the only primary candidate with both the money and the ambition to unseat Mr. Casey.
In that June post I noted two Obama policies that would work to his, and by association Casey's, detriment namely the war on coal and the HHS contraceptive mandates. The poll did not break down Smiths totals by religion but in Obama's case Catholic voters are going to Romney 56% to 43%. Running against Catholicism and coal in Pennsylvania is a risky proposition. Obama holds a 50% to 46% lead over Obama down from a 12 point lead last month.
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