Pick Your Winner

Yesterday on Fox News Sunday Herman Cain assured Chris Wallace that his campaign wasn't in financial trouble but he declined to say how much cash he had on hand. Without a single primary election for another seven or so months one would expect all the campaigns to be reasonably solvent. Last week much was made about Mitt Romney's raising $10 million in a single day. Prior to the Romney fund raiser it was thought that Michele Bachmann was the top fund raiser, garnering $13 million for her Congressional race. Last week it was reported that Sarah Palin had launched a 400,000 piece direct mail appeal. So not much is known about the fiscal strength of any campaign really just bits of antidotal data. Probably it's a good idea not to confuse successful fund raising with actually winning elections.
Flash back to 2008. Romney spent $107 million, $45 million coming out of his own pocket just to finish third. Spending only $16 million Mike Huckabee finished second. The obvious lesson to be learned from 2008 is money helps, every candidate needs some, but we shouldn't make to much of it.

Some pundits seem to think that a candidate's ability to raise money speaks to the candidate's voter appeal. Looking back again to 2008 Ron Paul raised $6 million online in a single day and how much voter appeal did he have? He had enthusiastic support among a small number of voters. Money talks but too much money talk leads to weird of circular reasoning.

Ok. So who among the declared and probable candidates wins the Iowa caucuses? Michele Bachmann was born in Iowa and lives in a neighboring state and stands a good chance to win here.

In 2008 Romney was humiliated in New Hampshire by John McCain. Romney, living in nearby Massachusetts, was supposed to win with ease. If endorsements count newly elected Senator Kelly Ayotte, one of Sarah Palin's "Mama Grizzlies" could be a big asset for Sarah Palin. The same can be said of the next race in South Carolina where "Mama Grizzly" Niki Halley occupies the governor's office. Four days later comes the Nevada caucuses. Nevada has a large Mormon population and Romney won there in 2008 but does Huntsman split the Mormon vote and allowing one of the other candidates to win? One might ask "What about Herman Cain, Tim Pawlenty, and Rick Santorum? Don't they win anywhere?" Yes, probably one of them will win somewhere and maybe one of them will win it all, and maybe the race will go someone not even mentioned by the smart money. Political forecasting is fun but not always accurate, That's why we have elections.