We have heard a number of commentator and politicians on cable television announce that Trump's floor, that is the 25% to 30% he has held in most polls, to also be his ceiling. Supposedly he cannot get above his present numbers and will eventually implode. Sound logic or wishful thinking? Probably the latter. Supposedly an establishment candidate will eventually emerge and vanquish the star of reality television but what candidate is that? It was thought to be Bush and then Christie but now it's Marco Rubio.
If all the other candidates were eliminated Rubio would take Trump. Not according to the Economist / YouGov
poll of 2000 Americans. They paired several candidates against Trump and against one another and if Trump is going to lose it will be against someone who has yet to announce.
| Donald Trump |
57% |
Marco Rubio |
43% |
| Donald Trump |
60% |
Ben Carson |
40% |
| Donald Trump |
57% |
Ted Cruz |
43% |
And my favorite.
| Ted Cruz |
55% |
Marco Rubio |
45% |
One poll does prove inevitability. The candidates do not run in a national primary rather they must concentrate on winning state elections. A poll of the general population is not as predictive as a poll of registered voters much less a poll of likely voters still one must question what polls the talking heads on cable news are using to support their opinions.
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