Republicans poised to capture the Senate

To quote the poet laureate of our generation, "You don't need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows." In a September 20 post Chris Cillizza who writes The Fix blog at the Washington Post opined that the Republicans were primed to capture the Senate. He noted that briefly the momentum had gotten away from the GOP but after a pause the party had regrouped and now was favored by three election models to take the Senate.
In his post Cillizza stated that the  Washington Post's Election Lab was the most bullish with a 65% probability of a Republican majority while the Times' LEO model pegged the chance at 55% and Nate Silver's Five Thirty Eight put it at a shade under 55%.
As of today WP's Election Lab has raised the GOP's probability to 77%, LEO gives it 67% and Five Thirty Eight has moved to 61% Republican.
The models are reflecting the polls which are moving toward Republicans. All 3 models predict Republicans will win in Montana, South Dakota, West Virginia, Louisiana and Arkansas meaning the Senate would be evenly split. To gain a majority the GOP must pick up one more seat and hold onto Kansas, Kentucky and Georgia. Kentucky and Georgia are probably secure wins for the GOP but Pat Roberts stands a chance of losing Kansas to faux independent Greg Orman.

As of September 20: Alaska:  Five Thirty Eight 56 % Republican, LEO 62 % Democratic, Election Lab 81 % Democratic

Today: Alaska:  Five Thirty Eight 71 % Republican, LEO 72 % Republican, Election Lab 81 % Republican

Sept.20: Colorado: Five Thirty Eight 50 % chance for both sides, LEO 55 %t Democratic, Election Lab 67% Democratic

Today: Colorado: Five Thirty Eight 57 % chance for Republican, LEO 61% Republican, Election Lab 66% Republican

Sept 20: Iowa: Five Thirty Eight 52% Democratic, LEO 53% Republican, Election Lab 70% Republican

Today: Iowa: Five Thirty Eight 57% Republican, LEO 61% Republican, Election Lab 82% Republican

Sept 20: Kansas: Five Thirty Eight 64% Independent, LEO 54% Independent), Election Lab 73% Republican

Today: Kansas: Five Thirty Eight 57% Independent, LEO 56% Independent), Election Lab 79% Republican

The elections are more than a month away which should give Robertson with his 5 to 1 spending advantage time to recover. About 10 days from now I'll revisit the data. Three more seats that a currently rated as Democratic wins could turn around.

Michigan: Five Thirty Eight 81% Democratic, LEO 81% Democratic, Election Lab 99% Democratic

New Hampshire: Five Thirty Eight 82% Democratic, LEO 82%, Election Lab 99% Democratic

North Carolina: Five Thirty Eight 77% Democratic, LEO 81%, Election Lab 97% Democratic