Tom Cotton leads Mark Pryor 51% to 42%

Congressman Tom Cotton has opened up a huge lead over incumbent Senator mark Pryor. A poll conducted by Hickman Analytics Inc puts Cotton at 51% to Pryor's 42% among likely voters. Pryor has used Hickman Analytic in the past and should have paid better attention to their findings. This is Blanche Lincoln all over again! Us News and World Reports underscores the importance of voter turnout in the election;

The poll reveals just how critical a high turnout will be for Democrats in Arkansas. Democrats have historically struggled to get voters to the polls during midterm elections. The most likely voters in midterm elections tend to be older, white and male voters, a constituency that favors Republican candidates. In Arkansas, Democrats are betting on a battle over raising the state's minimum wage will give Pryor a boost; the issue is expected to appear on the ballot in the November election and could mobilize a core Democratic constituency.

If the Texas primary in any indicator of voter turnout Pryor is definitely toast. In the Democratic gubernatorial race rising star and absentee mother Wendy Davis lost 7 of 14 predominately Hispanic counties and 21% of the statewide vote to Rey Madrigal, a pro life Catholic who raised exactly $0 for his campaign. Texas political writers attribute that loss to low voter turn out.