Romney Leads by 4 in Pennsylvania, Smith Leads Casey

 

Pennsylvania is turning Republican red before our eyes and the Democrats have begun to eat their young. Seeing the presidency as well as the senate perilously close to coming under Republican control former Governor Ed Rendell lashed out at Senator Bob Casey and his lackluster campaign.

"Casey? He hasn't run a campaign. He's run one ad, a stupid tea party ad," Rendell said. "The tea party ad isn't bad, but that's all they've run. They've run a non-campaign up until now, and Smith has put a lot of money into the campaign."

The ad Rendell referred to - the only one Casey had on the air in Philadelphia for a time - depicts an image of Smith on a tea cup and suggests the GOP nominee is too far right politically for Pennsylvania.

"Instructive criticism is one thing, but ignorance is something else," said Casey's media consultant, Saul Shorr.

Testy! Yes, Rendell is ignorant but nevertheless Casey is sinking fast as a Susquehanna poll conducted for the state Republican Party illustrates. The poll shows Romney leading Obama 49% to 45% and Tom Smith leading Casey 48% to 46%. The poll sampled 1,376 likely Pennsylvania voters and Susquehanna is an experienced polling firm so Democrats ignore it at their peril, except I don't think Ed Rendell is ignoring it. Aside from the liability at the top of the ticket with wars on Catholicism and coal in heavily Catholic and coal mining Pennsylvania Casey suffers the usual defects of a legacy politician. Okay it worked for William Pitt the younger but Pittsburgh is a close as Casey has been to the younger Pitt. In popular elections having a prominent family name will give the legatee a leg up but as countless Kennedy heirs have proven political acumen isn't hereditary.
Tom Smith, self made millionaire, Tea Party founder, and personal favorite of mine is new to politics but is blessed with wit and a endearing avuncular charm. He has had the courage of his convictions to use his own money to bury Casey in a blitz of ads and, to add insult to injury, to out raise Casey in donations. The relentless ads may have even aided Romney who so far has not contested Pennsylvania. Paul Ryan was in Pittsburgh Saturday, testing the political waters perhaps, as he told the crowd of 1000 gathered in an airport hanger that Obama would "keep his war on coal going. ... Over a hundred coal plants are scheduled to close, costing us thousands of jobs. Just a month ago we lost 1,200 coal jobs in states like Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Virginia."

I would be much surprised if Romney and Smith do not prevail in the keystone state.