Romney Up By 4 In North Carolina

No, North Carolina is not all tied up as the latest PPP poll suggests. There is some justification for weighting a poll in favor of one party. If a state is 40% Democrat and 20% Republican the election is apt to reflect that difference but not necessarily. A good example would be Louisiana with 1.2 million Democrats and 879,000 Republicans that gave McCain 58% of its vote. As you will remember Obama carried North Carolina by only 14,000 votes. The latest PPP sample is 47% Democrat, 34% Republican, and 19% independent/other. The poll shows a 48-48 tie. This is just deliberately bad polling; garbage in garbage out. A poll by Elon University and the Charlotte Observer gives Romney a 4 point lead and I will go with that number.