A great example of this is a new series Yahoo is running under the banner "Obama poised to win 2012 with 303 electoral votes: The Signal forecast:
A key finding of the model is that economic trends—whether things are getting better or worse than they were a month ago—are more meaningful than the level state of the economy. In other words, whether the unemployment rate is increasing or decreasing is more important than what the unemployment rate actually is.
Another lesson of this model is that, while campaigns and candidates matter, they don't matter all that much. Despite the varying quality and positions of the campaigns and candidates over the last 10 presidential elections, variables beyond their immediate control describe the outcome very well. A brilliant or lucky campaigner is at an advantage, but the net effect of politics and strategy, averaged over the past 40 years, is just the small variation that the Yahoo! model cannot predict.Now, of course, no one's voted yet. We aren't even close to the election. The economic model and unemployment numbers are based on fabricated numbers, pumped up by workers who've dropped out of the work force producing a false unemployment number.
The Signal model is not based on the overwhelming debt the country faces or that gas prices are set to soar by spring, a factor that most directly influences the lives of Americans on a daily basis.
The Signal prognosticators call their method of forecasting based on "politically agnostic factors," such as presidential approval numbers, the way states usually vote and incumbency, rather than polling.
Of course, most people like Obama and, in that sense, approve of him because he seems like a good family man and fairly cheerful. Yet to invite this worst of all presidents back to destroy another four years of employment and job creation has to figure somewhere into the equation.
Absolutely appalling is this most transparent of efforts to sway an election that hasn't even happened yet.
The message is,"Hey, it's over. Don't even bother to vote."
I remember one election (I think it was the re-election of Reagan) which was predicted to be very close; I settled in in front of the tv at 8:00 with a bowl of popcorn for a long night. I think the race was called around 8:03, to my shock and dismay, as I was planning to spend the entire night up until I knew who the winner was.
They had known who was going to win all along but insisted on trying to persuade until the end.
No comments:
Post a Comment