Rasmussen; Cain Leads in Iowa

The Rasmussen organization conducted a poll among likely Iowa caucus goers. There has been no shortage of polling information of late but I haven't blogged it simply because I trust some polls more than others. I'm confident with Rasmussen's work so here goes:

• Cain 28%


• Mitt Romney 21%


• Ron Paul 10%


• Newt Gingrich 9%


• Michele Bachmann 8%


• Rick Perry 7%


• Rick Santorum 4%


• Jon Huntsman 2%


• Some other candidate 4%


• Not Sure 8%

Only one third of those polled are certain of their choice and not likely to change their minds so we could see some dramatic changes before the January 3. Conventional wisdom dictates that organization is essential to winning in a caucus. If that holds true expect Bachmann and Santorum to do much better than this poll indicates. Cain and Romney have spent little time in Iowa to date and unless they are willing to commit more time to Iowa it's doubtful either can sustain their polling positions. Gingrich, after a shaky start has improved incrementally and Perry is fairly well organized and well funded. Really it is too soon to know anything.