Ohio Ballot Question Could Go Either Way

The Washington Post is reporting that public polls predicting a sizable labor win in the Ohio battle over collective bargaining are just flat-out wrong. So wrong in fact that Question 2 could go either way.

An internal memo from a key labor-backed group in the state is flatly warning that the polls are “flawed” and that a big win for labor is not even “remotely possible.” It adds that the right’s messaging has “worked,” and that there’s good reason to suspect that a “massive amount of voter confusion remains,” suggesting the fight could still go either way.

“Those predicting a blowout for our side are basing their analysis on flawed public polling samples,” reads the memo, which was circulated to labor and political operatives involved in the fight by Brian Rothenberg, the executive director of Progress Ohio, which is partly bankrolled by labor. It was forwarded my way by a source.

The memo goes on to note that off year election turnouts are hard to model and that neither the Quinnipiac or Public Policy Polling used the wording on the ballot in their polling. It further noted that ballot question polling has been off by wide margins in the 2004 same sex marriage ban, the 2005 election reform initiative, and the 2009 measure to build casinos.“Bottom line: It’s nearly impossible to develop a reliable likely voter model for ballot initiatives,” the memo says, adding: “there are simply too many unknowns to believe these numbers are credible or even remotely possible."

Was the polling just a trick to make Mitt Romney too scared to take a side?