Saturday, July 16, 2011

Unemployment Unchanged By Election Day?

If you don't read James Pethokoukis' (JimmyP) blog you really should. The Reuters writer is always on point but especially today.
Pethokoukis writes that Goldman Sachs has released it forecast for the economy and it is dire. Quoting from that report;
Following another week of weak economic data, we have cut our estimates for real GDP growth in the second and third quarter of 2011 to 1.5% and 2.5%, respectively, from 2% and 3.25%. Our forecasts for Q4 and 2012 are under review, but even excluding any further changes we now expect the unemployment rate to come down only modestly to 8¾% at the end of 2012.
Unemployment at 8.75% on election day? Remember the prediction from team Obama that if it passed the stimulus bill unemployment wouldn't get above 7%. Quoting Goldman Sachs again;
But the slowdown of recent months goes well beyond what can be explained with these temporary effects. … final demand growth has slowed to a pace that is typically only seen in recessions. .. Moreover, if the economy returns to recession—not our forecast, but clearly a possibility given the recent numbers 

Not only is this prediction bad for Obama and the Democrats but it presages unadulterated misery for millions of unemployed Americans and will further widen the gap between revenues and expenditures thereby increasing the budget deficit. Now is the time for the Republicans to hang tough on the debt ceiling for the good of the country.

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