In his post Cillizza stated that the Washington Post's Election Lab was the most bullish with a 65% probability of a Republican majority while the Times' LEO model pegged the chance at 55% and Nate Silver's Five Thirty Eight put it at a shade under 55%.
As of today WP's Election Lab has raised the GOP's probability to 77%, LEO gives it 67% and Five Thirty Eight has moved to 61% Republican.
The models are reflecting the polls which are moving toward Republicans. All 3 models predict Republicans will win in Montana, South Dakota, West Virginia, Louisiana and Arkansas meaning the Senate would be evenly split. To gain a majority the GOP must pick up one more seat and hold onto Kansas, Kentucky and Georgia. Kentucky and Georgia are probably secure wins for the GOP but Pat Roberts stands a chance of losing Kansas to faux independent Greg Orman.
|As of September 20: Alaska: Five Thirty Eight 56 % Republican, LEO 62 % Democratic, Election Lab 81 % Democratic|
|Today: Alaska: Five Thirty Eight 71 % Republican, LEO 72 % Republican, Election Lab 81 % Republican|
|Sept.20: Colorado: Five Thirty Eight 50 % chance for both sides, LEO 55 %t Democratic, Election Lab 67% Democratic|
|Today: Colorado: Five Thirty Eight 57 % chance for Republican, LEO 61% Republican, Election Lab 66% Republican|
|Sept 20: Iowa: Five Thirty Eight 52% Democratic, LEO 53% Republican, Election Lab 70% Republican|
|Today: Iowa: Five Thirty Eight 57% Republican, LEO 61% Republican, Election Lab 82% Republican|
|Sept 20: Kansas: Five Thirty Eight 64% Independent, LEO 54% Independent), Election Lab 73% Republican|
|Today: Kansas: Five Thirty Eight 57% Independent, LEO 56% Independent), Election Lab 79% Republican|
The elections are more than a month away which should give Robertson with his 5 to 1 spending advantage time to recover. About 10 days from now I'll revisit the data. Three more seats that a currently rated as Democratic wins could turn around.
|Michigan: Five Thirty Eight 81% Democratic, LEO 81% Democratic, Election Lab 99% Democratic|
|New Hampshire: Five Thirty Eight 82% Democratic, LEO 82%, Election Lab 99% Democratic|
|North Carolina: Five Thirty Eight 77% Democratic, LEO 81%, Election Lab 97% Democratic|